How has the post-2003 ruling elite circle been established? Coalition formation patterns in the elections

Volume 13 , May 2025 , Pages 546-560

Authors

Keiko SAKAI 1

1 professor at Chiba University and Director of Center for Relational Studies on Global Crises

DOI logo 10.17656/jlps.10359

Keywords

Abstract

In the context of post-conflict countries, it is imperative to examine the role of elections in the consolidation of social division and polarization among major ethnoreligious social groups in the aftermath of a significant regime change.

Electoral blocs formed in post-2003 Iraq are often understood as a case typical of the rise of identity politics in the post-conflict political vacuum; elections are employed as a tool for the mobilisation of the incumbent political ruling elite to consolidate and expand their supportive bases. However, the sectarian divide is not the sole driver of forming electoral coalitions since the 2010s.

The central research question guiding this study is to identify the factors that must be considered when explaining how political actors seek to mobilise voters and form alliances in parliament, and the reasons why post-2003 ruling elite circles enjoy their durability. This study elucidates the manner in which political parties expand their supportive bases, such as ideologies, common political targets, sectarian and ethnic origin, and shared political experiences. The study utilises data from the official website of the Iraqi High Electoral Commission, the profiles of the members of parliament published on the website of the parliament, candidates’ posts in the Facebook and Twitter and news data.

The importance of this study lies in its ability to shed light on the establishment of the post-2003 ruling elite circle, its penetration of local politics from the vantage point, and its formation of coalition patterns to recruit local notables and absorb rising political figures. These patterns are facilitated by intra-sectarian and intra-local rivalries, and the provision of opportunities for power-sharing.

Keywords: election, ruling elite circle, coalition, power-sharing

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  • First online15 May 2025
  • Published at15 May 2025

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